China's GDP expected to grow at around 4% in Q3

By Yang Yang| chinadaily.com.cn| Updated:  October 12, 2023 L M S


A view of Beijing's CBD area. [Photo/VCG]

China's GDP is expected to grow 4.1 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of this year, Securities Daily reported on Thursday.

The Chinese economy has shown a trend of stabilization and recovery, and the internal growth impetus of the economy has continued to strengthen as a series of policies to stabilize growth continue to take effect.

The country's industrial production sentiment has improved, and industrial production is expected to increase by 4.3 percent in September, said Zhang Wenlang, chief macroeconomic analyst with investment bank China International Capital Corp.

In terms of consumption, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods is expected to rebound to about 5.5 percent in September, said Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank.

From the perspective of major commodities, the expansion of the service industry has accelerated, among which the retail and postal business activity indexes have increased to varying degrees compared with the previous month.

Automobile consumption performance is eye-catching with passenger car market retail sales increasing by 13 percent year-on-year from Sept 1 to 24, according to Zhang Wenlang.

With the accelerated introduction of real estate optimization policies, commercial housing transactions improved month-on-month in September, helping to repair real estate-related consumption.

The real estate policies have been further optimized since the end of August and the real estate construction manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) picked up in September with stabilized cement prices, said Bian Quanshui, chief macroeconomic researcher at Western Securities.

It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in September will continue to pick up, and the cumulative growth rate in the first nine months is expected to be 3.1 percent, according to Bian.

"At present, the effect of domestic 'steady growth' policy is gradually emerging, the bottom out of the fundamentals has basically been verified, and the economy is expected to further improve with the effect of real estate policy," said Wen Bin.

It is expected that GDP growth will reach 5.5 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter, and the two-year average growth rate will further rise to 4.3 percent, said Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International.

The momentum of economic growth in Q4 is expected to improve comprehensively, among which the recovery momentum of consumption will continue to strengthen and the growth rate of investment will turn from a decline to an increase, according to Wang Qing.