China's GDP expands 4.6% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2026, on track to meet pre-set annual growth target

China's GDP expanded 4.6 percent year-on-year to reach 107.11 trillion yuan ($16 trillion) in the first nine months, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Oct 19. The freshly-released figure landed well within the annual GDP growth target of around 4.5 percent to 5 percent for this year, showing that the world's second largest economy continues to operate on the sound trajectory, setting a solid foundation for achieving the full-year growth target, analysts said. 

In the third quarter, China's GDP grew 4.5 percent year-on-year, accelerating from the 4.3-percent growth recorded in the second quarter. In the first quarter, China's GDP jumped 5 percent, NBS data showed. 

Observers said the third-quarter reading reflects multiple factors, including the manufacturing strength of China's high-tech and equipment sectors, which continued to underpin robust external demand, the strong drive from new and emerging industries, as well as the steady progress in the course of high-quality development.

Despite mounting uncertainties, Chinese analysts anticipated that the fourth-quarter reading would further pick up as more policy measures take effect and strong manufacturing momentum persists. 

According to the NBS data, China's value-added industrial output of above-scale enterprises in the first nine months rose 5.3 percent compared to the same period in 2025, while fixed-asset investment dropped by 7.2 percent year-on-year.

China's total retail sales of consumer goods expanded by 2.6 percent year-on-year in the January-September period, according to the NBS data.

"Despite facing downward pressures from both domestic and external factors, the Chinese economy demonstrated a clear trend of high-quality development in the first three quarters, with growth momentum shifting toward new drivers and the economic structure continuing to improve," Hu Qimu, a professor at the Maritime Silk Road Institute of Huaqiao University, told the Global Times.

Tian Yun, a Beijing-based veteran economist, told the Global Times that China's resilient production and relatively rapid export growth have played an important role in boosting the economy in the third quarter, especially in the manufacturing of high-tech products related to artificial intelligence (AI). 

"The figure has highlighted China's role as a stabilizer and locomotive of the global supply chain, and such position could be further strengthened in the fourth quarter, taking account of rising geopolitical tensions and external uncertainties," Tian said. He stressed that the country's resilient, stable and complete industrial chain has also helped cushion the global economy against some short-term disruptions, including those linked to the Strait of Hormuz. 

In the third quarter, while internal demand continued to recover, economists pointed to more signs of improvement in September, suggesting that policy support and seasonal factors were beginning to take effect and reinforcing the economy's underlying resilience.

Analysts attributed the improvement partly to the earlier timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival, which lifted spending on essential goods, alongside support from "more proactive and effective" macro policies, which effectively address multiple challenges and a low base effect from last year. 

They expected the accelerated implementation of existing policies to further stabilize domestic demand and market expectations in the fourth quarter.

"In fact, China's contribution to the global market today is not simply a matter of how large a share of global GDP it accounts for. It is now the world's second-largest consumer market, indicating its important role as a major source of demand and the enormous development opportunities it offers to the world," Tiansaid.

In first three quarters of the year, China's foreign trade growth hit five-year high, with exports jumping 16.4 percent while imports expanded 22.3 percent, customs data showed. 

Observers believed that the economic operation in the first nine months has set the tone for the country to achieve the full-year GDP growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent, with growth momentum – in particular new drivers from AI and high-tech manufacturing – expected to further consolidate in the fourth quarter. 

"As the government's countercyclical adjustments ramp up, incremental policies are rolled out in succession, and industrial transformation and upgrading further gain steam, the economy is expected to maintain a steady and resilient trajectory throughout the year," Hu said.